Friday, January 18, 2013

Bosnia: January 18

Today saw the end of the academic portion of our program, and we packed in a lot of things at the end. All in all, were were in Sarajevo for only 2 1/2 days, which I don't think was nearly enough time.  This was probably the city I was most nervous about visiting, because I had no idea what to expect, it being in a former warzone and all.  Of all the cities we've visited, however, this one probably got me to like it the most.  It's been through so much in it's history that I can't help but want to root for it to succeed, somehow.  There are so many beautiful things in the city center, the legacy of its inter-ethnic heritage, that make it unlike any other city in Europe.  It's easy to fall in love with it, like our local guide did.

At the same time, however, this was the most frustrating place.  You want to see something good come out of all the crap it has had to deal with in the war and afterwards, but there are so many systematic obstacles for both the city and the country.  The tragedy that occurred here is probably best illustrated by the story of the Rector of the University of Sarajevo.  During the war, he found himself put in what amounted to a small concentration camp, only to find that the guards were his former students.  In the faculty, people who had worked together for years professionally and personally suddenly went to opposite sides of an ethnic conflict.  And, at the end of all of this, the peace that ended the war institutionalized these ethnic divisions, which pretty much means that politics in Bosnia-Herzegovina is war continued by other means.

Take the current situation with the Presidency.  The current constitution stipulates that there be one member from each ethnic group.  The Croat member, however, comes from a political party that has a significant Bosniak membership, and was elected with the help of voters who don't consider themselves as part of any particular ethnic group (or part of an unrepresented one).  So you have this guy who is popular enough to get votes outside of his ethnic base, but now the Croats are upset; they're the smallest of the 3 main groups, and they don't consider this President to be representative of them.  They fear that if they let up just the tiniest little bit, the rest of the country will roll back their rights.  This kind of fear perpetuates a situation where the special status of ethnic groups is protected, which reinforces the Dayton mechanisms, which as stated in the previous entry, do little to nothing to help reconciliation or get any systematic reforms in this country done.

One of our many visits was in the office of the High Representative; which is the international community's Civilian enforcement mechanism for the peace process.  The person we met was the #2 guy in the office; he outlined how frustrating it can be to work in a country like this.  He did mention, however, one factor that gave him hope: there's only one path forward for this country, the reforms that would be pre-requisite for Bosnia to join NATO and the EU.  There's a political deadlock currently, but the frustration that's going to build as nothing continues to improve will either break the logjam, or the politicians will see what's coming, and use it according to their interests.

He did, however, outline an alternative scenario:  If neither civil society or political leaders push for these reforms, it is possible that Bosnia-Herzegovina will succumb to the centrifugal forces in the state, which will lead to it's weakening, and possibly dissolution into separate states.  He was the only one of all the people we met that seemed willing to acknowledge this possibility.  I don't know how likely he thought it exactly; he did relate hopeful stories of people realizing this need and acting on it.

I hope and pray that things can work out.  It may take a while, given how Bosnia possibly had the worst start imaginable for a post-communist transition.  Sarajevo is a city worth coming to, and coming back to.  Hopefully, there will be a return of people willing to make a state together.

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